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An online reference book

A field guide for the traps in marketing measurement.

— for the people who have to make budget calls on Monday.

Most arguments about marketing impact turn on definitions that look interchangeable. They aren't.

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Still ahead Coming soon
  • Holdout vs BAU
    What "business as usual" actually controls for — and what it doesn't.
  • Adstock & carryover
    When yesterday's exposure still drives today's lift.
  • Superiority vs non-inferiority
    Two different questions, two different bars.
  • Localized shift vs causal impact
    Geo holdouts vs the full counterfactual.
  • Test-to-now drift
    When the world moves but your point estimate doesn't.
© Wanjun Gao · Aluminar Research · First edition · 2026